Updates on President Déby's death

 

Idriss Déby was known as that rare thing - a true warrior president.

For 30 years he clung to power in Chad - a vast nation, straddling the Sahara, and surrounded by some of the continent’s most protracted conflicts.

Déby had a hand in every one of them. From Darfur, to Libya, Mali, Nigeria and the Central African Republic.

His troops were among the most battle-hardened on the planet.

And Déby - a former rebel, and a trained pilot - was the opposite of an arm-chair general.

So, this weekend, as a new rebel group moved towards Chad’s capital, Ndjamena, the president headed, once again, for the frontlines.

Then came the announcement on national television that the president had been injured on the battlefield, defending his country, and had later died.

Déby had become an increasingly autocratic figure, his latest election victory saw him claim nearly 80%.

It is unclear if the poor, feuding, brittle state he leaves behind can now manage anything like a smooth transition.

And there are wider concerns too.

For years President Déby was the West’s indispensable ally in the war against Islamist militants. In Mali, Niger and beyond.

His death leaves a vacuum that many may now fight to fill, across the arid, contested plains south of the Sahara.

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The rebels Déby fought

Chad's late President Idriss Déby had gone to the front line, several hundred kilometres north of the capital N'Djamena, at the weekend to visit troops battling rebels belonging to a group calling itself Fact (the Front for Change and Concord in Chad).

The group was founded in 2016 by disillusioned former army officers, who accused President Déby of repression in the run-up to the election.

They built up their base in Libya in the Tibesti mountains, which straddle northern Chad and part of southern Libya.

On election day on 11 April the group mounted an attack on a border post and gradually advanced on the capital, N'Djamena.

What was a president doing on the frontlines?

Though some say it's unusual for a president to have been on the battlefield in the first place, the BBC's Beverly Ochieng points out that President Idriss Déby was a field marshal and had often been at the frontline with his men.

About a year ago, Déby led an operation where 1,000 Boko Haram fighters were reportedly killed.

He began his career in the military and trained as a pilot in France.

Déby was promoted to army chief-of-staff under President Hissène Habré, who he toppled in a 1990 coup becoming president himself.

This is a coup - expert says

Chadian political scientist and professor at the Universty of Ndjamena, Evariste Ngarlem Toldé, has told BBC Afrique that the announcement that a military council will take power following the death of the president amounts to a coup.

"This is a coup d'etat. This is not provided for by the texts. So it is an anti-constitutional regime.

"Our fundamental law provides that in case of vacancy of power, it is the president of the National Assembly who should lead in the interim until the new elections. This transitional military council has no place. So for me, it is a coup d'etat."

BBC Monitoring analysts say that article 70 of Chad's constitution states that in the event of the death of one of the two leading candidates in an election, a fresh election should be held.

And according to article 81, in the event of the death of the president or if the president is indisposed, the president of the National Assembly should take office and fresh elections should be held between 45 and 90 days of the vacancy.

Government dissolved in Chad and elections scheduled

The military in Chad has announced that elections will be held in 18 months' time, following the death of President Idriss Déby.

The government has been dissolved and Mr Deby's 37-year-old son Mahamat Kaka, a four-star general, has been named interim president.

Experts have told the BBC and other broadcasters that the move is unconstitutional, and that the speaker of parliament should take over when a sitting president dies before organising elections.

Army has 'violated Chad's constitution'

The naming of Idriss Déby's son as leader violates Chad's constitution which stipulates that the speaker of parliament should take over in the event of a presidential vacancy, political analyst Dr Evariste Ngarlem Toldé has told the BBC.

He added that the constitution also expects the speaker to organise elections in which he would not be a candidate.

The most significant military actor in the region, deploying forces to assist Nigeria in the campaign against Boko Haram, a major player in the G5 Sahel, with troops in Mali and Niger, and a big influence over events in the Central African Republic.

Internally, the regime still appears to be in command, now headed by his son.

But the longer term outlook is uncertain. Mr Déby had just been re-elected in a contest that opponents felt was far from democratic - it is not clear whether his successor will be able to sustain this authoritarian system.

Internal politics and rivalries within Mr Déby's own Zaghawa clan are also a consideration.

It is reported that Mr Déby was wounded fighting rebels in Kanem region, just 400km (248 miles) from the capital, N'Djaména - the previous bout of rebel activity had been much further north, in the Sahara and near to the border with Libya.

But this suggests instability has moved much further south.

There are deep underlying political, societal and development pressures in Chad that had been contained by Mr Déby's forceful rule but certainly not resolved.

Much will depend on how his son's new military regime manages to prepare the next political stage and whether it will seek to develop dialogue and consensus about the way forward or whether it will try to sustain the type of constitutional strongman regime that Mr Déby had built.